Brazil's Chilean copper imports accelerate 210 points

The pace of Brazil's refined copper imports from Chile flipped completely in January 2026: after a month-over-month reading of -53.8%, the pace accelerated to +156%, a swing of 209.8 percentage points. It's the second derivative that matters here — not the level, but how fast the curve is bending.

The curve bending

December closed weak, with the monthly buying pace shrinking by more than half. January reversed with full force, more than doubling the volume imported from Chile on a month-over-month basis. A 209.8 percentage-point swing between a negative month and a strongly positive one is large enough to grab attention — but the negative starting point weighs on the read.

When the prior month was already in decline territory, any recovery looks dramatic in percentage terms. That doesn't invalidate the move, but it calls for caution before treating it as a permanent trend shift.

What catalyzed the reversal

Chile is the world's largest supplier of refined copper, and Brazil has long relied on Chilean mining and refining output to feed its wire, cable and electrical-component industry. Restocking after a weak month is the most direct explanation: Brazilian buyers who held off purchases in December may have returned to the market in January to rebuild delayed volume.

FX is also worth considering as backdrop. Real-to-dollar moves early in the year often shift the timing of raw-material contracting — a more favorable exchange rate in January could have pulled forward orders that had been held back.

What to watch from here

The real test comes over the next few months: if February and March hold the pace above zero, the read shifts from rebound to trend. If the rate falls back into negative territory, it confirms January was just a one-off restocking event.

Source: MDIC ComexStat.