Morocco now supplies half of Brazil's phosphate fertilizer

Morocco was already Brazil's top phosphate fertilizer supplier. Now it owns more than half of everything the country buys abroad. Through the last closed month of 2026, the North African nation accounted for 50.7% of Brazilian phosphate fertilizer imports, up from 38.9% in the same stretch of 2025.

The year-end scoreboard

The rank itself didn't move — Morocco already led last year. What changed is the gap to whoever sits in second place. Import value climbed from US$ 331.8 million to US$ 614.5 million, a jump of 85.2% year over year (YoY). Meanwhile, traditional Gulf and Russian suppliers lost relative ground even without shrinking in absolute volume — Brazil's phosphate market simply grew faster through the Moroccan channel than through anyone else's.

The reason is well known in the supply chain: Morocco sits on a large share of the world's phosphate rock reserves and can offer large, predictable volumes, an advantage that gained weight after sanctions and wartime logistics scrambled Russian and Belarusian supply in recent cycles.

Implications for exporters

For Brazilian buyers of phosphate fertilizer, concentration in a single supplier is an operational risk, not just a political one. If a Moroccan port runs into trouble — a strike, maintenance, weather — the knock-on effect on domestic input prices now moves faster than it did two years ago, when supply was still split across four or five origins.

Logistics operators, on the other hand, gain a stronger case for negotiating long-term contracts directly with Moroccan ports instead of routing through an intermediary trading house. Larger cooperatives and distributors are already locking in multi-year volume, betting phosphate fertilizer won't get cheaper anytime soon.

What to monitor from here

There is no authorized forecast data to commit to a price direction. What can be tracked are concrete signals: Moroccan port shipping capacity in the second half, international phosphate rock pricing, and any sign of a new entrant — Egypt and Saudi Arabia have both been expanding processing capacity and could compete for share in coming cycles.

As we showed in Canada now supplies over half of Brazil's potash imports, origin concentration in critical farm inputs isn't unique to phosphate — it's a pattern worth watching across the whole nutrient supply chain.