Turkey leaps to #1 buyer of Brazilian gas, from near zero

Turkey was not on the map a year ago. In 2024, the country purchased US$ 92 worth of petroleum gas and hydrocarbon products from Brazil — a figure so marginal it barely registers in MDIC ComexStat records. By the close of 2025, that number had become US$ 37.9 million, and Turkey had claimed the #1 position among all export destinations for this category, absorbing nearly 57.6% of Brazil's total market share.

That is not a jump. It is a step-change.

The shift in rankings

Before 2025, Brazil exported almost nothing in petroleum gas to Ankara. The #26 ranking with just US$ 92 in FOB value was more a trace transaction than a commercial relationship. Turkish buyers sourced this input from traditional origins — mainly Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran through regional pipelines.

What changed was the scale of Turkish demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other hydrocarbons on international spot markets. With European supply diversification reshaping regional trade after 2022, Turkey repositioned itself as a regional gas hub. The country built floating regasification terminals in the Aegean precisely to avoid dependence on a single pipeline route. Brazil — with LPG export capacity through specialized terminals at the Port of Santos — emerged as a competitive alternative supplier in that new arrangement.

Operational impact for exporters

For Brazil's petrochemical sector and trading companies active in this segment, the data changes capacity planning. Santos is the primary LPG exit point in Brazil, with specialized berths operated by major logistics groups. Turkish demand at 2025 levels requires medium-term contracts with defined loading windows — pure spot volumes cannot absorb this scale reliably.

The concentration in a single destination — nearly 58% of total exports — is also a caution signal. If Turkey renegotiates contracts or diversifies suppliers again, the impact on Brazilian volumes will be immediate. Markets with this level of share concentration rarely sustain the pattern across more than two annual cycles. The risk is asymmetric: building up took one year; unwinding could take three months.

What to watch next

The near-term trajectory depends on two independent factors. First, how much Turkey can restore LPG supply from traditional sources (Russia, Kazakhstan) as European geopolitics stabilize. Second, the BRL/USD exchange rate: LPG exports are priced in dollars, but handling, port operations, and labor costs in Brazil are in reais. When the exchange rate favors the exporter, contracts close more easily.

Brazil's petrochemical sector has the installed capacity to sustain 2025 volumes — but only if Santos terminals avoid logistical bottlenecks from growing domestic LPG residential demand, which Brazil's ANP (National Petroleum Agency) monitors monthly. Domestic consumption of LPG cooking gas grew roughly 4% in 2024, adding direct pressure on the same port infrastructure used for exports. Scheduling conflicts are not hypothetical — they already surfaced in mid-2024 during a domestic shortage alert.